America and the Middle East

So, Obama's upcoming speech in Cairo is one of the biggest stories in the region, and in the coming weeks there's going to be a lot of busy diplomats and leaders setting the stage. Of course, Netanyahu's visit to Washington is crucial, and there's been a tonne of press coverage in the past week. From the Financial Times, some unsolicited advice for President Obama and its reading of the lay of the land:

Mr Obama’s job now is to tell Israel it can have peace or it can have occupied land, but not both.

Mr Netanyahu, and a palpably rattled Israeli leadership, want to change the subject. There can be no movement on the Palestinian conflict, they say, until the threat of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has been resolved. On the contrary, says the US administration: we intend to resolve this conflict, and turn negotiations into a wider Arab-Israeli settlement through the Arab League peace plan, and thereby build unity in the region to confront Iran – with a deal or with isolation. Joe Biden, vice-president, George Mitchell, special envoy to the Middle East, and Rahm Emanuel, Mr Obama’s unimpeachably pro-Israeli chief of staff, have all told the Israeli government and its allies in Washington that the West Bank settlements have to stop. That, of course, will not be enough.

The Economist has pretty much the same opinion:

For the first time in many years, an Israeli government is scared stiff that an American administration may squeeze it until its pips squeak. That is surely a good thing, if it makes the Israelis more amenable to giving the Palestinians the fair deal—in essence, a proper state of their own—that might bring peace to the two peoples and to the wider region of the Middle East. So when Barack Obama meets Binyamin Netanyahu in the White House on May 18th, he must be tough with him.

So while most agree that the US has to get tough with Israel and push for a two-state solution (which Netanyahu opposes, at least publicly), Israel wants assurances on Iran first. This reflects the complexity of resolving anything in this part of the world; every problem needs to be precluded with a solution to something else first. In this case, it would be a good idea to try to separate Iran from the issue and work on that separately.

Some good news for Obama: his favorable ratings in the UAE are the highest in the Middle East, and the highest of the US for anytime since 2002.

almost six in 10 Arabs in the Emirates say their attitude towards America has improved since the election of Mr Obama, with two-thirds expressing the belief that the Obama administration will bring positive change to US-Arab relations.

Obama's popularity in the Middle East, according to the Financial Times, creates a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a two-state solution.

Lots of links, and lots of news. What do you think?